With the ever changing face of the economy based on varying factors [such as government protectionism, automation of industries, downsizing of companies] the trend to more and more people choosing to start their own business for various reasons continue to rise. With that said – along with this trend there is an increasing need for structured marketing process and client acquisition processes and methodologies to be utilised within these businesses in order to transform a startup into a fully functional revenue generating entity.
It is often the case that many smaller businesses are product rather than market focussed. In many cases we find that there is no actual marketing department so to speak of and as a consequence the function of marketing within the company ends up being fulfilled ‘as and when’.
We can contrast this to what we find in any larger organisation or corporate; we find an actual marketing department, with qualified marketing professionals who are analysing the market, target customers and competition, they continually look for trends and movements in their chosen space in order to refine the marketing message and continually push the communication through the channels. This is to include the distribution channel [where appropriate], print media, radio, catalogues etc, etc and of course the use of digital marketing channels [social media, email marketing, video marketing, micro blogging and more].
The above is what leads to the typical ongoing market penetration that we see within these organisations leading to new products and services development a steady stream of new clients and the nurturing of existing clientele.
It is with the smaller organisation in mind, the solopreneur or work from home business owner that any strategic business attraction marketing blueprint is targeted towards. This is one or two steps down from making use of an in person consultant that will look to understand the business operations and put specific structures in place that when followed; will first provide a deeper understanding of the market place and target market clients but will also provide the foundation for providing the products and services that the intelligence directs the company towards producing.
It is recommended that organisations looking to add structure and processes to the marketing and client acquisition aspect of their businesses direct their energies to these main fundamentals.
Client Strategy & Preparation
Setting Up Key Business Processes & Systems
Getting Clients While You Sleep
Follow Up & Retention
1) Gaining a deeper understanding of the needs, desires and behaviour of the clients no matter what the industry will drive the decisions that are made in relation to the products and services that are developed and presented to the market space.
2) Key systems and processes such as continuous market intelligence related to pricing and customer behaviour can help to take the organisation to the next level and gain a significant competitive advantage over other companies supplying related or similar products and services.
3) The marketing process for bringing new prospects into the marketing funnel must be an ongoing activity; whilst focusing on servicing existing clients it is imperative that someone is taking care of make new clients aware of the needs that your organisation can fill.
4) Too often it is the failure to followup and keeping in touch that leads to the loss of valuable customers; depending on the business tools such as email marketing, videos, membership sites and print media may be used in order to stay at the top of the mind of the target customer.
Once the process has been developed it will then be a matter of refining it [say once a quarter] whilst some is taking care of the execution which will lead to new customers, sales and products and services leading to increased revenue generation.
Online marketing is encircled by facts.
Online marketing is encircled by specifics that every single aspiring online entrepreneur will need to understand. Whilst you have noticed multiple accomplishment stories regarding people who succeeded and gained thousands to millions of dollars by using Digital marketing, they are also bounded by these information existing round the market.
Effective Marketers have spent more than a few years to perfect their marketing approaches.
Initially, exactly like the common business investment, you are not able to make a lot of money immediately on Website advertising. Effective Online marketers have put in many years to perfect their advertising tactics. They have started from learning the ‘ins and outs’ of the business chance, used existing plans, developed their personal marketing approaches, and check their brand-new tactics to their marketing business. Though Website marketing provides a profitable business chance for everybody, it requires a while prior to you could generate millions of dollars because of Online marketing. You will begin from some hundreds and soon after many months or years, you will be capable to gain thousands of dollars on Digital marketing income.
Your competitors will usually be your competitors.
There are situations wherein they uses you for their benefit. Obviously, we do not need to damage friendships here, yet it is a truth that you will need to be cautious of. You can easily work together with other Web marketers, but you have to make sure that you are not working with hungry predators or those who will never work with your generosity for their benefit of generating even more money.
Obtaining full potential customers is the most difficult element of your Website marketing profession.
Keep in mind that the achievement of your Website marketing business depends on the easiest way you will catch the attention of likely clients originating from the bulk of traffic available the Net. Even if you have a practical site with beneficial facilities just like info catalogs and shopping cart services, on one occasion you did not draw in substantial website traffic toward your site, your Online marketing business will be of total catastrophe.
Amongst the above mentioned details, the previous one is what you require think of most. As earlier mentioned, the achievement of your Digital marketing career depends upon just how you build your customers base. Many of these clientele base will act as your bloodline that could keep your marketing career surviving. With out them, the Website marketing industry will remain to be a dream for folk who wish to make more money.
You need to study the whereabouts of Online marketing promotion and advertising.
If you want to catch the attention of probable customers and convert them in to faithful product evangelizers, you will need to study the whereabouts of Digital marketing promotion and advertising. Promoting and advertising your Online marketing is vital to your web page and to your career too. Throughout these plans, you will probably be able to entice encouraged persons who are ready to buy what ever you are providing. Taking time to develop some hype regarding your internet site will keep them returning and produce an interesting impression to those persons who haven’t got a try of your products or services.
Promotion and advertising will certainly help you secure the particular traffic.
Promotion and advertising will assist you to acquire the targeted traffic that you desire in the early run of your Digital marketing career. Actually, the expense of promoting and advertising your internet site on the Net is not as costly as advertising your products and services throughout standard ways including billboards and classified ads of diverse newspapers. Even if you do not have that significant marketing budget, you can still publicize and advertise your site using different alternative and low-cost promotional solutions.
Features of a great Website marketing promotion and advertising.
Have a look on the following items and ensure that your promotion and advertising methods have these features:
• It have to have a long-lasting influence.
Do not only employ an advertising medium once and dispose of it. Discover methods on the best way you will be able to use it for different times. You might use a comparable strategy on each advertising tool and generate client understanding with the marketing instrument and also the product or service you are marketing. Think about some effective promotions and advertisement which include for Energizer batteries and others.
• An successful Online marketing promotion and advertising have variants.
Do not merely stay with a solo ad format. Switch the color, text, and the message of your advertisements but do not adjust its characteristic character. The modifications have to be carried out in the consideration of a lengthy lasting ad result. Do not hesitate to check out fresh choices. If you believe these innovative suggestions will help you enhance and advertise your Digital marketing business efficiently, then do it. The even more you expand your promotion and advertising attempts, you will be able to be successful in your Website marketing business career.A total body structure.
How come can we see? So why can we hear? For what reason can we speak? How come can certainly we stand, walk, jump, and sit? Quite simply, how do we live in this world? As a result of science and technology, we know today. We can see simply because we possess a two of eyes. People can hear as we have a couple of ears. We can easily speak out mainly because we have actually a mouth and vocal chords. We all can easily stand and perform locomotive functions mainly because we own our body. We are capable live in this globe since we have a full human framework. Even though we may not see it, nonetheless the structure of the human body provides us life, aside from the external components, just like air, food, water, and others, that all of us want to have each day. Without a total body structure, we are not able to live routinely in this world.
A simple structure to carry out a goal.
Structures are not merely crucial and helpful to the human body. Actually, the office building that you are occupying, the home exactly where you and your spouse and children lives, the automobile that you drive from your home to work, the retail center exactly where you buy your basic and several other personal requirements, and different issues in the natural environment possess a basic structure to accomplish not simply their physical presence but also their goal too. Is right now there a home with out doors and roofs? Is presently there an automobile with out engine and wheels? Structure is an essential part of their being-without it, their being and intent is not complete. If you believe that the structure is only for physical characteristics alone, then simply you require to presume once again. In fact, abstract items also need to have structure in order to endure. And Internet marketing does require a particular structure. In what way?
Website marketing structure is created of many aspects.
Affiliate marketing is recognized from other different kinds of business ventures, including the brick and mortar marketing, throughout its structures. Online marketing structure is constructed of different factors which include long and short-term advertising tactics, direct and indirect branding market, traffic evaluation, product sales volume analysis, and other important components. There is certainly a need for every single Online marketer, if a neophyte or a skilled one, to understand the structure of Affiliate marketing to obtain the suitable procedure and be good in their particular careers.
Learn the fundamental structure of Website marketing.
One of the secrets in gaining successful marketing methods is to learn and figure out the fundamental structure of Online marketing. For example, you need to understand that there is a large variation among short-term and so long-term advertising tactics by which the previous is a short-term strategy and the second option is a long-term methodology. Most likely you will ask, Is generally there a considerably better Affiliate marketing structure? Even though the structure is viewed as to be as the standard outline, there are situations in which because of changing market circumstances and other additional factors, there is a need to change a few parts of the structure, possibly to eradicate or put more than a few aspects.
Among the best Website marketing structures.
The present framework of Website marketing is right now one of the better if not the greatest structures amongst all existing opportunities. Presently there are extra factors that are nowadays considered to be the greatest lifeline of the business online market.
THE FOUNDER: you are one of the essential components of an Online marketing structure. The organization will not be effective if you will not fully stand up and lead your organization to the proper path. Keep in mind that the Cyberspace has its personal dungeons and it is exactly where you require to sparkle and destroy the darkness to turn into powerful on your Affiliate marketing career.
THE PRODUCT: in the event that you do not have a product to offer, do you think that you will be able to get a cut of the Website marketing income pie? Secondly, it is not merely offering a particular product to online consumers. It is even more of selling an exclusive product that will provide you larger product sales as you complement your Online marketing business. This contains effective advertising of products on the Word wide web and numerous internet based advertising packages.
THE DATABASE: it is the list of people who provides you authorization to get in touch with them throughout emails and newsletters. It is significant to the presence of your web business since you will need to build a faithful clientele base that will never simply make purchase yet will even make regular purchase of your solutions.
THE AFFILIATES: no person is an island. You equally will need affiliates that will certainly help you publicize and market your goods. They are not only assisting you to earn nevertheless as well helping them to generate for themselves.
Due to the smart minds of online marketing innovators and professionals, we possess an enhanced Affiliate marketing structure to lean on.What is digital marketing?
Today nearly 80% of all the media that we consume come through digital channels. Massive internet usage and digital media has given rise to a new marketing concept called Digital Marketing. It is a broad area and considered to be the future of business development.
Digital Marketing is the most commonly used term for online marketing and it has several advantages over traditional offline marketing. With the help internet and mobile devices customer these days have access to information from anywhere in the world. Marketers these days use digital tactics to attract and convert audiences online.
This new age marketing methods helps to gain good reputation which is essential for a business to survive. It is the best way to reach out to your targeted audience. With the help of digital marketing one can reach many customers at a very little marketing budget. Unlike traditional methods you can measure the success of digital marketing campaigns with the help of analytical tools. Ever year more and more marketers put aside traditional marketing and focus on this approach. Successful marketing campaigns can be accomplished by integrating traditional methods with the digital marketing techniques.
Common methods of digital marketing
This is one of the commonly used methods of online marketing. Email marketing enhances business communication, cost effective and Eco-friendly. By this method a message could be sent to a group of people by the use of electronic mail.
It is an efficient way to stay connected with your audience while promoting your business and also one of the easiest ways to reach your target audience.
Search Engine Optimization
It is an organic way of optimizing your online content to improve the ranking of your website on the search engine.
There are a lot of factors involved in ranking of a website such as title, keywords, relevance etc. SEO helps to ensure that your site is accessible and improve the chances of being found by the search engine. It is classified into two types on page and off page optimization. On page optimization is achieved through careful distribution of keywords and the quality of content on your site. Off page optimization involves factors that are beyond the control of your website. The primary goal of link building is to get other websites links to yours to improve SEO.
Search Engine Marketing
When someone searches for information or a keyword, SEM makes sure that your site appears at the top of search engine results. It uses a variety of techniques which helps the search engine to deliver your site to the web searchers.
One must clearly understand SEO before using SEM. It is one of the most efficient ways to spread your business across in this competitive world. Some of the components of SEM are ad auction, bid and quality score. Your maximum bid for a keyword with a great quality score determines your ad position.
Pay Per Click
The fastest way to reach your target audience can be achieved through P P C campaigns. You pay each time when someone clicks on your ad. For example, if you pay 1 rupee per click and when 1000 people click your ad it will cost you 1000 rupees. Based on the CTR (click through rate) the performance of you ad campaign is determined. It generates faster results by targeting the right people at the right time and at the right place. Since it costs money it is suitable for businesses that sell product/services.
Social Media Marketing
The process of marketing through various social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram is known as Social Media Marketing. The primary objective of SMM is to produce content on social media that help an organization to increase brand awareness and customer reach. In social media companies can share content to achieve marketing goals.
It is a form of conveying a message with elements like images, logos, graphics, audio or video to communicate to the target audience. Also known as banner ads, it gives a unique opportunity to re-target the ideal audience. You can also display ads to people based on their search behavior. Generally, display ads are seen alongside on search engines such as yahoo, Bing and Google.
This type of marketing is done by creating and sharing free content to attract new prospects and retain existing customers. Informative content is shared in the form of articles, videos, info graphics etc. It helps in building strong relationships with your audience by providing them with relevant high quality contents. Your business goal should be aligned with content strategy to gain critical success.
How a fresher would benefit from digital marketing?
In digital world, online marketing is essential for running a successful business. Marketers these days are adapting from traditional to digital approach.
Digital marketing provide small businesses with resources to perform sales and marketing that were previously available only for large companies. It ensures the survival of online businesses. Today, brands are putting more focus on digital marketing than ever before. Digital marketing skills are in serious demand and provide a unique competitive edge for one’s career. It offers great opportunities around the world. There is a wide range of digital marketing roles which include jobs related to social media as well. It also provides a variety of opportunities to start your own career as an Entrepreneur. There are lots of benefits that digital marketing professionals can look forward in upcoming years. More companies embrace digital marketing as their primary marketing strategy which creates a plenty of job opportunities for freshers. The future of digital marketing seems to be very bright at the moment.The traditional marketing mix used by businesses comprised of 4 key elements thought to be vital to the success of any business. However, with the passage of time and the variations in the kind of products and services offered, there are 7 key elements today in the marketing mix that require constant evaluation to ensure the best possible results. These 7 P’s are:
Businesses use a unique combination of all these elements in an attempt to achieve the highest customer satisfaction levels.
In this article, we will discuss all the 7 elements in detail and will explain how businesses can make constant variations in their product mix to maximize their goals.
What distinguishes your product or service from other products? While there are standard quality and service components to establish performance, the product or service needs to be somehow unique, some way better than its competitor. This “unique selling proposition” is mission-critical to the business’s success. Customer satisfaction with your product or service is of utmost importance. Though it’s important to offer a high quality or a more economical price, better availability or quicker delivery time, it is also essential to make sure that your product or service has something that is unique and that sets it apart from the competitors in the market.
Consider if the target market sees the price of your product or service as affordable. If the target market is not willing or able to buy, there is no chance to build your business successfully. If the price of your products is higher than competition, it is imperative to convince the market the value of the price premium.
In order to capture the market, make your products and services accessible and easy to buy. If the customer can’t find you, they can’t buy from you. If you offer online sales, carefully consider the process customers must go through to buy online. A difficult purchasing process is a barrier to sales. Know where your target audience lives and shops in order to put your product in front where they can see and learn about it.
Promoting your product through the right channels to ensure highest exposure is essential to the marketing process. A promotion on broadcast TV or radio is expensive compared to other channels; they will reach people who may have no interest or not be qualified to buy your products. The costly reach of broadcast media can waste valuable marketing dollars with little return. If the channel is online, use the internet – and search engine optimization – to your advantage. Find out the keyword search terms that will bring the most amount of traffic. Leverage the content and position of the websites that feature your product to its best advantage. If promotion is direct mail, give careful consideration to a targeted mailing list. Direct mail can be more focused and waste less resources, resulting in a more exacting approach to your target market.
Think about all aspects of your organization that your prospective customer encounters. From the cleanliness of the selling floor and lavatories in a brick and mortar location to the ease of website navigation, the visit should be a pleasant and hassle-free experience for the customer. Polite, courteous and well-trained staff should be a priority to convey an image of quality from the product to the people who help sell and re-sell the product. The primary and secondary packaging can elevate a simple useful product and make it more desirable. Everything that the customer comes in contact with comes under the physical evidence.
A lead generation process happens from the time your marketing is seen or heard by the customer until they take advantage of your call to action. The sales process starts from that call to action until the product or service is successfully delivered and paid for. Is the process well-tested and reliable? Is the experience the same from the customer’s point of view each time they interact with your company? How efficient is the sales process? If the process can be delivered from lead to sales in the optimum amount of time, conserving resources and expense, it can be replicated over and over to build more sales revenue.
From the people who answer the phone, greet the customer, handle problems, process payments, follow up on the sale, and manage the team to the president of the company, all actions contribute to an image of quality and service. It’s common to hear companies say we have great customer service in today’s world, but how they deliver the great service is what holds great significance to the customer.
How Companies Use the Marketing Mix
The marketing mix experiences a lot of variations throughout a product’s lifecycle stage. For example, if we look at the category of health supplements, a lot of the brands started off as delivering nutritional supplements to men and women in the market. However, in the development stage of the product’s lifecycle, brands were focusing more on gaining exposure through lower introductory prices and different promotional packages. As the brands crossed the Introductory stage and moved on to growth stage, businesses started catering to more specialized categories such as Teens, Men, Women, and the above 50 and began developing more products for each category. These line extensions are typical of a business in the growth stage. When a company is in the mature phase of their lifecycle, it is common to re-launch their products with innovation to capture the surge of business experience in the development stage. In the category of health supplements, many brands identified the opportunity of attracting customers looking for exercise and athletic supplements for enhance performance. This new market segment opened the doors of a completely new marketing niche for businesses that focused on diversifying the market and on increasing the market for this new category.
Experienced marketing consultants such as 1st Straw Marketing ask a lot of questions to dive deep into the different aspects of business. Getting to know the perception of the market and the internal workings of the company selling products and services is essential to developing a strategic and tactical plan that can be successful. Depending on each stage of the product’s lifecycle and the influence of the market, business leaders and professional marketers are constantly evaluating their marketing mix and making changes to serve their target market better. Planning, review, evaluation and research goes into determining every element of the marketing mix and is vital to the overall success of a business.
Despite the recent correction, and regardless which popular metric you use; PE, Shiller’s CAPE Ratio, or Buffett’s Market to GDP comparison; this is one of the most expensive markets since 1923. The other two were the 1929 and 2000 markets and we know how those turned out. Incidentally, 1923 was the year the “Composite Index” was introduced, the S&P 500’s precursor.
The record shows that, while stock prices can continue at elevated levels for a long time, they eventually reverse to the mean. That can happen in one of two ways. Either the market goes sideways for a long time until earnings catch up, or there is a sharp drop to bring prices in line with historical PE ratios – a reversal to the mean. History has shown that investors are not a patient bunch. They will put up with a sideways market for a while, but eventually they will tire of meager returns and put their money to work where they believe will yield greater gain potential. Once that ball gets rolling, the market exits en masse and a severe bear market takes hold. The upshot: there is a big market drop in store.
The question is when and was this past correction a hic-up or a prelude to the big plunge. A study of major bear markets indicates the latter is more likely. Indeed, a review of 28-plus -percent market drops since 1923 reveals there is always a preamble to every major bear market. Some folks are under the mistaken impression that stock market crashes occur at market tops. That is far from the truth.
The stock market may well be fickle, but providence is kind. It always gives us advance notice of a coming crash, grabbing our attention amidst our complacency with a surprise drop and providing an opportunity to get out before it crashes in earnest. This is shown in the analysis below for each of the following major bear markets (28% decline or more): 2007, 2000, 1987, 1973, 1968, 1962, 1946, 1937, and 1929. Intraday prices and daily closes are only available for the S&P 500 from 1950 on. Therefore, Dow Jones Industrial Average closes were used for the markets before that.
The initial top for the 2007 market came July 17 when the S&P 500 had an intraday high of 1555.90. The index would drop the next week and eventually settle to an intraday low of 1370.60 a month later on August 16 – a drop of 11.9%. Henceforth, all highs and lows are intraday unless otherwise stated. The market would climb for seven weeks to reach a market top for the index of 1576,09 October 11, 2007 – 1.3% higher than its previous high. An initial 5.5% dip was followed by a quick recovery to 1552.76 October 31, before succumbing and dropping 10.8% to a low of 1406.10 November 26, 2007. The index would recover to a high of 1523.57 and continue on a series of lower lows and highs until its nadir of 666.79 March 9, 2009 for a 57.7% decline.
The 2000 market gave plenty of warning before the Dot.com plunge. The market faltered right after opening the New Year January 3rd. After reaching a high of 1478, the S&P 500 dropped to 1455.22 at the close. It dropped below 1400 the next three days and recovered to 1465.71 – the high January 20, 2000. From there it did a roller coaster ride down to the 1329.15 low of February 25 – a 10.1% drop from its high thus far. The market finally climaxed at 1552.87 March 24, 2000. It would drop precipitously April 14 to a low of 1339.40 – a 13.7% drop – but then slowly recovered to 1530.09 by September 1, 2000, only 1.5% below its all-time high. Thereafter it steadily went down with some sharp drops followed by rallies but only to the downtrend line. The market bottomed at 775.80 October 9, 2002 for a 50.1% decline.
The 1987 bear market was a swift one. After vacillating to a high of 337.89 August 25, 1987, the S&P 500 dropped to 308.58 by September 8 – an 8.7% hit. It quickly recovered to 328.94 by October 2, only 2.6% down from its high. It wobbled to a close below 300 October 15 before crashing the next Monday to close at 224.84 – a loss of 20.5% for that day. It would close lower December 4, 1987 at 223.92 but the low point for the move came the day after the plunge, October 20, when it dipped to 216.46 for a loss of 36.0% from the August high.
This, along with the 1968 bear market, were part of the mega bear market that spanned 1967 – 1982. The S&P oscillated within the 100 and 110 range for most of the year. It cleared the 110-barrier in late summer only to dip below it again before making its final surge as the year closed. It peaked at 119.79 December 12, 1972 and then dropped 4.3% to 114.63 December 21, 1972. The New Year propelled the index higher reaching a top of 121.74 January 11, 1973 – a 1.6% gain from the previous high. It quickly dropped to 111.85 by February 8 and then proceeded to careen downward over a series of bumps until hitting bottom at 60.96 October 4, 1974 – a 49.9% loss.
After an initial drop to start the year, the market climbed steadily from March through November finally topping December 2, 1968 when the S&P 500 maxed out at 109.37. The index dropped to 96.63 by January 13, 1969 (an 11.6% drop), fizzled in its rally coming within 0.43 points of the low March 17, and then rallied all the way up to 106.74 May 14, 1969. After coming within 2.4% of the top it succumbed finally hitting bottom May 26, 1970 at 68.61. That was a 37.3% haircut.
The stock market steadily climbed from October 1960 to December 1962 when the S&P 500 topped out at 72.64 December 12, 1962. Then it dipped to 67.55 January 24, 1963 for a 7.0% loss. The index quickly went back to 70 the next week and eked out a small gain the next month finally peaking at 71.44 March 15, 1.7% below the high. Thereafter, the index plunged to 51.35 June 25, 1962 for a 29.3% decline.
The market had been on a tear since the latter part of World War II and started 1946 the same way gaining 8% by February. Intraday highs and lows for the S&P 500 were not available for the analysis so, hereafter, Dow Jones Industrial Average closes will be used. The Dow Jones closed at 206.61 February 5, 1946. The index then plunged 10% to close at 186.02 February 26. It quickly recovered its previous high and surpassed it on a bucking horse ride up to 212.5 May 29, 1946 – a 2.9% gain from its previous high. The bumpy ride continued until August when the index reached 204.52 on August 13 and then fell in exhaustion finally closing at 163.13 October 9, 1946 for a 23.2% decline. Despite a number of rally attempts, the market would continue to struggle until February 1948 with a maximum loss of 28%.
After a precipitous drop from 1929 to 1932, the market seemed to be on recovery mode until it plateaued in early 1937. The Dow Jones closed at 194.4 March 10, 1937 to mark the end of the uptrend. The index then drifted lower for three months until bottoming June 14, 1937 at 165.51 for a 14.9% loss. It spent the next two months on a steady climb eventually topping at 189.34 August 16, 2.6% below the previous high. That was its last hurrah as the market plunged 49.1% to its 98.95 March 31, 1938 Dow Jones close.
Much like the 2000 market, the Big Crash of ’29 gave plenty of warning. After going sideways for the first half of the year, the market went through a 10.0% correction when it swanned from a 326.16 Dow Jones close May 6 to 293.42 May 27. Thereafter, it rose undaunted until reaching the market top close of 381.17 September 3, 1929. It drifted lower, slowly at first, but then gained momentum until reaching a low point Friday, October 4 with a 325.17 Dow Jones close – a 14.7% loss. It made a mad dash effort to recover the next week but was only able to manage a 352.86 close October 10. At 7.4% lower than the September high, this was the lowest percentage close to a previous high of any of the major bear markets. Then again, this was the granddaddy of all bears. Ten trading days later, on October 24, the index closed below 300. It dived Monday, October 28 and again the next day closing at 230.07. The market continued its plummet until eventually reaching bottom July 8, 1932 when the Dow Jones closed at 41.22 for a record 89.2% decline.
Historical data shows that every major bear market since 1923 always provided investors with a warning. After seemingly peaking, they went through a significant decline before rising again only to plummet thereafter. In two instances, 2000 and 1929, it gave two warnings; the first a correction months before peaking, and the second after peaking.
Declines after the initial peak ranged from 14.9% to 4.3% with an average of 10.8% and a median of 11.6%. In three out of the nine cases, 2007, 1973 and 1946, the second peak was lower than the first. The range was from a loss of 7.4% to a gain of 2.9% with an average of -1.4% median of -1.7%. Taking out the 1929, 7.4% outlier, the average was -0.63% and the median -1.6%. The time between the two peaks ranged from 30 days to 5.4 months with an average of 96.7 days and a median of 93 days.
Starting from the premise we are in the beginning stages of a major bear market, and having gone through a 10% correction, what is in store for us? Surveying the data, it turns out we are average. There seemed to be no relationship between the severity of the bear market and the time lapse between the two peaks. However, five out of the six times the market went through a bonafide correction, 10% or more, it took months, between 2.9 and 5.4 months, for the market to top and begin its downturn in earnest. The notable exception was the Crash of 1929, which only took 37 days between the first and seconds peaks. Although there was no consistent pattern for depth of the initial decline and the total decline, it is notable that the four largest initial drops led to declines of 49% or more – a level only achieved by the 1973 bear market after only a 4.3% decline. There is no discernible relationship between the initial decline and second peak level, nor the total decline and second peak level.
It could be that Morgan Stanley’s prediction this Monday, that a slowdown may loom starting in the second quarter, may be correct. We have already gone above the -7.4% level from 1929, so it would seem this market does not correlate all that well to that one and the wait to the next decisive peak will be measured in months. Regardless, I would caution all to watch the market’s advance very carefully. If the S&P 500 gets within 2.6% of the 2872.87 January 26 top, i.e. 2798, that is your signal to exit the stock market. No sense being greedy about the last 1 or 2 percent gains and risk losing much more.